The GRSF Road Crash Cost Analysis Tool helps countries understand the economic burden of road traffic crashes and estimate the Value of a Statistical Life (VSL)—a key input for cost–benefit analysis of road safety investments. VSL represents the monetary value society places on reducing the risk of a fatality and is essential for calculating the socio-economic costs of road crashes.
Many low- and middle-income countries lack country-specific VSL studies, so the tool applies a methodology based on World Bank income classifications to generate robust, comparable estimates, as outlined in the paper, The Value of a Statistical Life in the Context of Road Safety: A New Value Transfer Approach. These estimates provide a practical evidence base for policymakers, planners, and researchers to prioritize road safety investments and design cost-effective interventions—especially in countries where local VSL data are not yet available.
How to use the tool
- Select a country either by clicking on the world map or using the drop-down menu.
- Select a data year by using the drop-down menu. *Estimates are derived for each selected year based on available country-level data. For details on how the values are used, refer to the Methodological Notes section below.
- Instantly view key indicators, including estimated VSL (in US dollars) derived from World Bank income data, the estimated number of road crash fatalities and serious injuries, and the total economic cost of these crashes and its share of national GDP.
Formulas for calculations are listed underneath the tool.
GRSF Road Crash Cost Analysis Tool
Formulas
- VSL for Low and Middle-Income Countries (LMICs): VSL = 0.404 × (Y / 5,726)1.2
- VSL for High Income Countries (HICs): VSL = 3.206 × (Y / 42,087)0.8
- Where VSL is in million US$ and Y is the Gross National Income (GNI) per capita (US$, 2020 prices).
- Inflation Adjustment: VSL in year i = VSL in i-1 × (1+R)
- Example for 2020 to 2021: VSL in year 2021 = VSL in 2020 × (1+R)
- Where R is the inflation rate from i-1 to i (e.g., from 2020 to 2021).
- The Value of a Statistical Injury (VSI): VSI = VSL × the percentage of VSI to VSL
- Where the percentage of VSI to VSL is 25%
- The number of Serious Injuries is calculated as 10 times of the number of fatalities.
Methodological Notes
Estimations for 2022 and subsequent years
Road crash fatality figures by country are sourced from the WHO Global Health Estimate. As the most recent estimates available are until 2021, the 2021 figures are used as a proxy for 2022 and subsequent years until estimates are updated. CPI values used in VSL calculations reflect each country's annual CPI growth rate for the corresponding year.
CPI data are drawn from the World Bank as the primary source, with the IMF as the secondary source. This two-source approach ensures consistency in base years, coverage periods, and methodology across different regions and countries.
Countries with Extreme CPI Values
For countries that have experienced hyperinflation, Road Crash Cost as a percentage of GDP equivalent may show sharp increases over time (i.e., the calculations have not been smoothed or suppressed). These movements reflect macroeconomic conditions, rather than changes in road safety outcomes. Depending on the purpose of the analysis, users may consider referring to the 2020 base VSL directly, rather than the CPI-adjusted figures for the affected years.
Read the publication
